Motorola Solutions stock forecast
Motorola Solutions' weighted forecast reaches October 2029, with the 2029 range running from $304.13 to $873.00. Motorola Solutions' outlook hinges on backlog converting profitably, cash generation holding and acquisitions creating value.
Where could Motorola Solutions' shares be by October 2029?
The 2029 range runs from $304.13 in the bear case to $873.00 in the bull case. Today’s reference price is $463.10. The bear receives 25% probability. The base receives 56%, while the bull receives 19%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 357.49 (-22 %) | 331.65 (-26 %) | 304.13 (-31 %) |
| Base | 56 % | 508.62 (+11 %) | 537.98 (+19 %) | 562.39 (+25 %) |
| Bull | 19 % | 630.10 (+37 %) | 747.28 (+64 %) | 873.00 (+92 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 493.92 (+8 %) | 526.16 (+16 %) | 556.84 (+24 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Motorola Solutions?
The bear case uses slower revenue conversion and margins that fall from 20.1% to 19.5%, producing the earnings shown in the table. Delayed public projects, memory costs, debt and integration pressure support that path. The bull case assumes revenue reaches $17,100 million by 2029, with margin rising to 24.7%, as radio refreshes, subscribers, Silvus and D-Fend reinforce one another. Backlog and software targets support the upside, but acquisition returns remain unproven.
How much cash does Motorola Solutions really make?
Operating cash flow exceeded capital spending by a wide margin in 2025, and free cash flow represented a larger share of revenue than it did in 2021. That is a positive sign. Yet capital spending alone does not show all reinvestment: spending on employees, software development and other operating activities already passes through operating cash flow.
Stock compensation needs a separate look. Motorola adds it back because issuing shares does not use cash immediately. Economically, however, employees have received something valuable, and existing shareholders bear the dilution. Subtracting stock pay produces an analytical measure of cash generation after that cost.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 2,572 | 2,134 | 1,791 | 1,567 | 1,594 |
| − Stock pay | 293 | 243 | 212 | 172 | 129 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,279 | 1,891 | 1,579 | 1,395 | 1,465 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 22.0% | 19.7% | 17.9% | 17.2% | 19.5% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 19.5% | 17.5% | 15.8% | 15.3% | 17.9% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow matches ours, but real free cash flow is lower because share-based pay gives employees part of the company even though no cash leaves today.
What does an investor pay today for Motorola Solutions?
P/E means price divided by earnings per share, but the chosen earnings period changes the answer. The 36.5x trailing P/E uses the past year’s reported profit; the 26.1x forward P/E uses an estimate of future profit. Acquisition amortization and transaction fees reduced reported earnings, while a Hytera litigation gain increased them, so the comparison works only when the accounting treatment matches.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 463.10 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 36.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 26.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.4% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.0% |
What this means. The enterprise value may not show the company’s current debt and cash because those figures come from before the August acquisition and financing.