Live Nation stock forecast
Live Nation's weighted case reaches $169.38 in October 2029. It hinges on profitable venue growth, cash conversion and a manageable legal outcome.
Where could Live Nation's shares be by October 2029?
At today's $171.84, the weighted path reaches $181.25 in October 2027. That is a 5% return including dividends. It then falls to $165.10 in October 2028, a negative 4% return. By October 2029, it reaches $169.38, a negative 1% return. Every case assumes no dividend, so these returns come from the share price.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 103.20 (-40 %) | 49.16 (-71 %) | 48.30 (-72 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 192.19 (+12 %) | 184.93 (+8 %) | 185.18 (+8 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 270.98 (+58 %) | 289.44 (+68 %) | 311.52 (+81 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 181.25 (+5 %) | 165.10 (-4 %) | 169.38 (-1 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Live Nation?
The base path uses revenue of $30.1 billion and a normalized margin of 4.0% initially. Revenue reaches $32.5 billion while the margin stays at 4.0%. By 2029, revenue reaches $35.0 billion and the margin improves to 4.2%. The assumptions reflect 10% attendance growth guidance and 25 large venues scheduled through 2027, but also rising depreciation and a low-margin concerts business.
The bear case falls to $885 million, then $763 million, because remedies and costs overwhelm venue growth. The bull case reaches $1,488 million and later $1,961 million because strong demand, productive openings and ancillary spending create operating leverage. Live Nation reported 159.166 million fans in 2025 and more than $45 of ancillary spending per US amphitheater fan.
How much cash does Live Nation really make?
Venue investment then reduces what remains. In 2025, operating cash flow less capital spending left free cash flow of US$333.611 million. After treating stock compensation as an economic cost, real free cash flow was US$178.392 million, or 0.7% of revenue.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,395,316 | 1,725,175 | 1,362,974 | 1,835,047 | 1,780,568 |
| − Capital spending | 1,061,705 | 646,634 | 438,604 | 347,206 | 152,734 |
| = Free cash flow | 333,611 | 1,078,541 | 924,370 | 1,487,841 | 1,627,834 |
| − Stock pay | 155,219 | 110,348 | 115,959 | 110,049 | 209,337 |
| = Real free cash flow | 178,392 | 968,193 | 808,411 | 1,377,792 | 1,418,497 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 0.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 8.3% | 22.6% |
What does an investor pay for Live Nation today?
The forward P/E measures the price paid for forecast earnings per share. But common EPS excludes profits belonging to minority partners and can also be reduced by accretion on redeemable interests. In 2025, Live Nation reported approximately $496 million of income attributable to common shareholders, but a $551 million accretion adjustment produced a loss for the EPS calculation. The operating business can therefore grow while the common-share earnings denominator remains weak.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 171.84 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 40,555,207 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 92.4x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 0.8% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 0.4% |
What this means. The last-12-month price-to-earnings ratio is not meaningful because the company lost money, leaving no positive profit to compare with the share price.