Lam Research stock forecast
Lam Research's weighted value is US$343.49 per share in October 2027. The outlook hinges on cash conversion and qualified process wins.
Where could Lam Research's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price for October 2027 is $343.49, an 8% return including dividends. For October 2028, it is $321.64, a 2% return including dividends. For October 2029, it is $318.04, a 1% return including dividends.
The bear probability is 25%. The base probability is 55%. The bull probability is 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 261.83 (-17 %) | 152.74 (-51 %) | 176.14 (-44 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 337.00 (+6 %) | 330.06 (+4 %) | 308.35 (-2 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 463.43 (+46 %) | 509.59 (+61 %) | 522.06 (+65 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 343.49 (+8 %) | 321.64 (+2 %) | 318.04 (+1 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Lam Research?
Operating profit rises in the base case to $9,860 million in October 2027 and $10,540 million in October 2028. It then holds at $10,560 million in October 2029. This extends the recovery in systems and support revenue, while margins ease from fiscal 2026’s level. The bear row assumes a spending pause and lower margins; the bull row requires AI demand, utilization, and process qualifications to broaden.
How much cash does Lam Research really make?
Stock compensation is another ownership cost. Employees receive shares instead of cash, but shareholders bear dilution or the cost of repurchases. Fiscal 2026 stock pay was $386,381 thousand, leaving analytical “real free cash flow” of $4,504,871 thousand. This is not Lam’s official measure; it asks what remains after recognizing that equity compensation belongs in the economic cost of running the business.
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,857,657 | 6,173,264 | 4,652,269 | 5,178,938 | 3,099,674 |
| − Capital spending | 966,405 | 759,186 | 396,670 | 501,568 | 546,034 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,891,252 | 5,414,078 | 4,255,599 | 4,677,370 | 2,553,640 |
| − Stock pay | 386,381 | 343,371 | 293,058 | 286,600 | 259,064 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,504,871 | 5,070,707 | 3,962,541 | 4,390,770 | 2,294,576 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 19.4% | 27.5% | 26.6% | 25.2% | 13.3% |
What does an investor pay for Lam Research today?
The forward P/E looks much lower than the trailing P/E because earnings are expected to recover sharply. P/E divides the share price by annual earnings: trailing P/E uses the past twelve months, while forward P/E uses a forecast of the next twelve. Semiconductor customers do not expand factories steadily. They order heavily in strong cycles and delay purchases during downturns, so the forecast behind the forward multiple matters as much as the multiple itself.
| Today (Oct 11, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 318.84 |
| Market value (calculated) | 399,004,144 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 397,159,536 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 55.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 26.7x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.2% |