ITW stock forecast
ITW’s weighted forecast points to $280.55 in October 2027. It hinges on durable growth, strong margins, and cash conversion.
Where could ITW’s shares go?
The weighted path reaches $280.55 in October 2027, a 6% return including dividends. It reaches $284.48 in October 2028, a 10% return including dividends. By October 2029, it reaches $300.14, a 19% return including dividends.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 175.44 (-33 %) | 119.52 (-51 %) | 80.06 (-63 %) |
| Base | 57 % | 300.79 (+13 %) | 302.09 (+17 %) | 302.48 (+20 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 399.89 (+50 %) | 525.44 (+99 %) | 702.08 (+167 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 280.55 (+6 %) | 284.48 (+10 %) | 300.14 (+19 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving each case more or less influence based on its probability, not a separate prediction.
What could go right or wrong for ITW?
The bear case requires the 2026 acceleration to fade while customers defer equipment and construction spending remains weak. Tariffs or raw-material inflation could arrive before price recovery, and CBI could fail to replace simplified product lines. Cash conversion would remain below plan, so dividends and buybacks would pressure equity and debt would compress the multiple. The price falls from $175.44 in 2027 to $80.06 in 2029. Its 28% probability reflects the raised outlook's dependence on a second-half acceleration and the first-half cash shortfall.
The bull case requires repeat CBI purchases across segments, recovery beyond electronics and welding, timely pricing, and stronger cash conversion. The price rises from $399.89 in 2027 to $702.08 in 2029. Its 15% probability reflects a credible growth route that public disclosure has not yet proved durable.
How much cash does ITW really make?
The memo’s “real” free cash flow subtracts stock compensation. Share-based pay does not require immediate cash, but it is still a cost to owners because it dilutes their claim. Second-quarter 2026 free-cash-flow conversion was 77%, which ITW described as seasonal; the full year matters more than one quarter.
Free cash flow is the cash left after operations and spending on new equipment and facilities. It differs from accounting profit because a sale may be recorded before the customer pays, while inventory may absorb cash before it is sold. In 2025, ITW reported $3.126 billion of operating cash flow. It spent $419 million on plant and equipment, leaving $2.707 billion of free cash flow.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,126 | 3,281 | 3,539 | 2,348 | 2,557 |
| − Capital spending | 419 | 437 | 455 | 412 | 296 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,707 | 2,844 | 3,084 | 1,936 | 2,261 |
| − Stock pay | 69 | 61 | 69 | 63 | 53 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,638 | 2,783 | 3,015 | 1,873 | 2,208 |
What this means. The company’s own free cash flow matches ours, but real free cash flow is lower because we also subtract shares given to employees as pay, which reduce shareholders’ ownership even though no cash leaves.
What does an investor pay for ITW today?
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 272.28 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 24.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 22.2x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 5.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.5% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.4% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ guesses about future profit, so it may be wrong.