IAG stock forecast
The weighted forecast for IAG is 422.76 GBp in October 2027. It hinges on repeatable margins and cash generation after fuel costs and fleet investment.
Where could IAG's shares be by October 2029?
The probability-weighted price is 422.76 GBp in October 2027, a 4% total return including dividends. It is 424.54 GBp in October 2028, a 6% return. By October 2029, it is 418.36 GBp, a 7% return. The October 2029 range is 273.06 to 543.93 GBp. Today's price is 414.80 GBp.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 320.11 (-22 %) | 299.34 (-26 %) | 273.06 (-31 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 449.71 (+10 %) | 457.32 (+15 %) | 455.32 (+16 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 509.38 (+25 %) | 530.41 (+33 %) | 543.93 (+40 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 422.76 (+4 %) | 424.54 (+6 %) | 418.36 (+7 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate prediction.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for IAG?
Operating profit is the main earnings bridge. The base case rises from €4,420m in October 2027 to €4,752m in October 2029. The bear case starts at €2,788m, while the bull case reaches €5,935m. The base uses revenue growth and margins near the middle of management's 12%–15% outlook, below the 15.1% margin achieved in 2025. The bear reflects fuel pressure and fare competition: fuel and emissions costs rose €433m in the first half of 2026. The bull requires fuel relief, better mix and aircraft entering service reliably. Loyalty's €548m contribution in 2025 supports the earnings floor.
How much cash does IAG really make?
Capital spending and lease-principal payments then absorb much of the cash. After those deductions and stock pay, real free cash flow was €1,802 million. IAG’s own measure was higher because it stops before lease-principal payments. The two measures answer different questions, so the definition matters.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 1,802 | 1,819 | -411 | -476 | -2,366 |
| − Stock pay | 58 | 72 | 52 | 39 | 23 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,744 | 1,747 | -463 | -515 | -2,389 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 3,146 | 3,556 | 1,320 | 979 | 1,822 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 5.4% | 5.7% | -1.4% | -2.1% | -28.0% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 5.3% | 5.4% | -1.6% | -2.2% | -28.3% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it leaves out lease payments, while we count those payments as cash that has left the business.
What does an investor pay for IAG today?
P/E means the share price divided by earnings per share. A shop bought for £100 after earning £10 has a P/E of ten; if it is expected to earn £15, its forward P/E falls to about 6.7. IAG’s forward multiple implies forecast earnings per share about 12.2% above the trailing figure, so its apparent cheapness already depends partly on improvement.
Enterprise value tries to value the operating business by adding debt-like claims and subtracting cash. Positive net debt would normally make it higher than equity value, but IAG reported €4,692 million of net debt while the calculated enterprise value is lower than the equity value. Different dates, currencies or lease treatments may explain the mismatch, so the figure needs reconciliation.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 414.80 |
| Market value (calculated) | 18,080.87 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 16,211.632 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 7.56x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 6.74x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 8.1% |
What this means. The enterprise value is lower than the market value because the company has more cash than debt.