Gildan Activewear stock forecast
Gildan Activewear's probability-weighted scenario reaches CAD65.74 by October 2027 and CAD101.53 by October 2029. It hinges on recurring earnings improving and Hanes integration and debt reduction succeeding.
Where could Gildan Activewear's shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to a positive expected return, but with a wide range of outcomes. The probability-weighted value reaches CAD65.74 by October 2027, a 16% total return including dividends. By October 2028, it reaches CAD81.65, a 46% return. By October 2029, it reaches CAD101.53, an 83% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 36.76 (-34 %) | 40.90 (-25 %) | 51.03 (-5 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 72.71 (+28 %) | 89.83 (+60 %) | 108.67 (+96 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 93.90 (+65 %) | 125.91 (+123 %) | 165.10 (+194 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 65.74 (+16 %) | 81.65 (+46 %) | 101.53 (+83 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Gildan Activewear?
Case probabilities are bear 30%, base 52% and bull 18%; 2029 values are C$51.03 in the bear case and C$165.10 in the bull case. The integration target is US$250 million of annual run-rate synergies through 2026–2028. The September 2026 quarter must deliver US$1,650 million of continuing sales and a 26.0% adjusted operating margin. The Australian business sale is expected to close in the second half of 2026, with proceeds intended to repay acquisition debt. Bangladesh’s second textile facility is expected to begin production in late 2027.
How much cash does Gildan Activewear really make?
Capital spending fell from 239,128 in January 2023 to 106,436 in 2025. After the specified deductions, real free cash flow reached 423,373, or 11.7% of revenue. Stock compensation does not immediately leave the bank account, but it still costs shareholders through dilution or replacement purchases.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 606,315 | 501,388 | 546,606 | 413,488 | 617,510 |
| − Capital spending | 106,436 | 145,332 | 203,289 | 239,128 | 127,457 |
| = Free cash flow | 471,324 | 340,812 | 318,423 | 157,801 | 468,579 |
| − Stock pay | 47,951 | 64,529 | 26,957 | 32,393 | 37,659 |
| = Real free cash flow | 423,373 | 276,283 | 291,466 | 125,408 | 430,920 |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is higher because it leaves out some cash payments and includes some cash received from selling assets and insurance.
What does an investor pay for Gildan Activewear today?
On October 19, 2026, Gildan’s shares traded at C$57.85. The company’s market value was approximately C$10.71 billion. Its enterprise value was approximately C$16.75 billion. Enterprise value estimates what the operating business costs before considering its financing: it adds debt and subtracts cash from the value of the shares. That is why the roughly C$6.04 billion gap matters. Lenders are paid before shareholders.
P/E, or price-to-earnings, measures how much investors pay for each dollar of profit. Gildan’s trailing P/E is 31.2x, while its forward P/E is 8.9x. The first uses the last twelve months; the second uses expected earnings. Amortization records the gradual use of an acquired intangible asset. Gildan recorded US$29 million of it in the first half of 2026, mainly for Hanes customer relationships. It is not a new payment in that period, but those relationships must still retain their value.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 57.85 |
| Market value (calculated) | 10,713,348.4068 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 16,749,841.4267 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 31.2x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 8.9x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.6% |
What this means. The next twelve months price-to-earnings ratio uses estimated future profit, so it can look much lower even though that profit has not happened yet.