Fresnillo stock forecast
Fresnillo's weighted forecast is near-flat by October 2029. It hinges on 2027 production reaching management's ranges while cash funds capital spending without dilution.
Where could Fresnillo's shares go?
The forecast's central message is near-flat weighted returns despite a wide operating range. The weighted price is 2548.22 GBp in October 2027, a total return of -0% including dividends. It reaches 2564.70 GBp in October 2028, a return of +4%. By October 2029 it is 2495.15 GBp, a return of +5%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 1296.92 (-50 %) | 998.94 (-60 %) | 869.43 (-64 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 2686.25 (+5 %) | 2544.85 (+4 %) | 2281.06 (-2 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 3871.73 (+52 %) | 4731.09 (+91 %) | 5257.23 (+119 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 2548.22 (-0 %) | 2564.70 (+4 %) | 2495.15 (+5 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average value across the bear, base, and bull cases, rather than a separate prediction.
What has to go right or wrong for Fresnillo?
The bear case requires silver and gold prices to retreat before Fresnillo completes its production recovery. Lower grades, metallurgy problems, peso costs and delayed replacement projects compress margins and dividends, while the multiple falls. It reaches 1296.92 GBp in October 2027 and 869.43 GBp in October 2029. The probability is 27% because all four specialists assign meaningful downside risk, although opening net cash reduces financing stress.
The base case gains support if 2027 production reaches management's ranges and cash funds capital spending without dilution. The bull case needs improved grades and throughput, firm realized prices, and visible progress on replacement projects during 2028–2029.
How much cash does Fresnillo really make?
After capital spending, lease payments and interest, free cash flow reached US$1,844,252 thousand. Earlier years consumed cash: free cash flow was negative US$150,377 thousand in 2022. Across the five years, cumulative free cash flow was US$2,693,040 thousand, most of it arriving in the final two years.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,289,707 | 1,299,802 | 425,922 | 502,185 | 895,141 |
| − Capital spending | 400,141 | 370,542 | 483,409 | 592,129 | 592,052 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,844,252 | 877,900 | -126,519 | -150,377 | 247,784 |
| − Stock pay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,844,252 | 877,900 | -126,519 | -150,377 | 247,784 |
What this means. The table subtracts lease payments and interest from cash flow too, so its free cash flow is lower than a simple cash from operations minus equipment spending calculation.
What does an investor pay for Fresnillo today?
Fresnillo looks inexpensive on current earnings, but those earnings are unusually exposed to precious-metal prices.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 2,669.0 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 11.4x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 7.1% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 7.1% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.6% |
What this means. The next-year price-to-earnings ratio uses analysts’ guesses about future profit, so it can change if those guesses are wrong.