Franco-Nevada earnings: guidance and results
Franco-Nevada's next results are expected on November 11, 2026. The key thing to watch is whether Candelaria, Côté and Tocantinzinho turn expected improvements into receipts while Antamina faces lower Q3 deliveries.
What has Franco-Nevada guided for 2026?
GEOs, or gold equivalent ounces, put different metals into one common unit. Management guides to 510,000–570,000 GEOs for 2026. Its 2030 outlook is 555,000–615,000 GEOs without a full Cobre Panamá restart. The guidance depends on improvements at Candelaria, Côté and Tocantinzinho, while Cobre Panamá stockpile deliveries remain finite.
By 2030, management expects 555,000–615,000 GEOs without a full Cobre Panamá restart. That growth must offset contractual reductions: Candelaria’s entitlement is expected to fall from 68% to 40%, while Antapaccay will move to 30% of gold and silver production. The next question is whether analysts think this plan will produce the promised earnings.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold ounces sold (oz) | Year to Dec 2026 | 360,000 | 400,000 | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Silver ounces sold (oz) | Year to Dec 2026 | 4,700,000 | 5,500,000 | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Diversified revenue (millions) | Year to Dec 2026 | 245.0 | 285.0 | Aug 11, 2026 |
| GEOs Sold (oz) | Year to Dec 2026 | 510,000 | 570,000 | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Candelaria, GEOs sold (oz) | Year to Dec 2026 | 57,500 | 67,500 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Antamina, silver ounces (millions) | Year to Dec 2026 | 3.5 | 3.7 | Mar 10, 2026 |
Did Franco-Nevada keep its production promise?
Franco-Nevada forecast 465,000–525,000 gold-equivalent ounces for 2025 and delivered 519,106. A gold-equivalent ounce converts different commodity receipts into a common gold measure. Hitting guidance shows portfolio execution, but mine operators control production and commodity prices affect the conversion.
What have Franco-Nevada's last eight quarters shown?
Operating cash improved, while free cash flow swung positive because acquisition spending fell sharply. The eight-quarter record shows how investment timing can change free cash flow even when revenue rises. Antamina’s warning of lower third-quarter deliveries is therefore more useful for forecasting than one unusually strong quarter.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 580.9 | 650.7 | 597.3 | 487.7 | 369.4 | 368.4 | 321.0 | 275.7 |
| Operating income | 445.7 | 577.8 | 453.9 | 341.0 | 305.8 | 253.5 | 217.4 | 182.0 |
| Net income | 354.0 | 468.6 | 367.7 | 287.5 | 247.1 | 209.8 | 175.4 | 152.7 |
| EPS, diluted | 1.83 | 2.43 | 1.90 | 1.49 | 1.28 | 1.09 | 0.91 | 0.79 |
What this means. The company's free cash flow can swing sharply because its capital spending includes buying royalty, stream, and working interests, not just equipment and buildings.
What should people watch in Franco-Nevada's next results?
Candelaria, Côté and Tocantinzinho must turn their expected improvements into Franco-Nevada receipts. Antamina also matters because management expects lower Q3 deliveries after reduced concentrator throughput in Q2. A concentrator separates valuable minerals from mined rock, so lower throughput can reduce later deliveries even after production conditions improve.