Endeavour stock forecast
The weighted forecast is 5,459.72 GBp by October 2027, a 32% return. The investment turns on durable, saleable ounces from Mana and Assafou, not simply a higher gold price.
Where could Endeavour's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is 5,459.72 GBp by October 2027, a 32% return. It reaches 6,323.85 GBp by October 2029, a 57% return including dividends. The bear case carries 27% probability. The base case carries 52%; the bull case carries 21%. By October 2029, the range runs from 789.45 GBp in the bear case to 15,457.09 GBp in the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 1807.54 (-55 %) | 884.86 (-75 %) | 789.45 (-77 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 5743.01 (+39 %) | 5113.60 (+26 %) | 5509.05 (+38 %) |
| Bull | 21 % | 9453.90 (+127 %) | 11484.99 (+178 %) | 15457.09 (+276 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 5459.72 (+32 %) | 5309.83 (+31 %) | 6323.85 (+57 %) |
What this means. The weighted value is an average based on the chances of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right for Endeavour's forecast?
The base case sets EBITDA at $3,120m in October 2027. It then uses $2,796m in October 2028 and $2,990m in October 2029. The first year assumes 1.20m ounces at a $4,200 gold price, with $1,600 cash costs. That sits within the company’s production guidance and allows costs above 2025’s $1,216 per ounce. The bear case falls from $1,430m to $1,080m before ending at $1,208m, reflecting Mana’s weakness and lower gold. The bull case rises from $4,313m to $4,608m and then $5,503m, requiring stronger mine delivery and a faster Assafou ramp.
How much cash does Endeavour really make?
Endeavour’s own free-cash-flow measure differs because it subtracts net investing cash flow while leaving financing payments elsewhere. Stock compensation is then deducted in “real free cash flow” as an economic cost to shareholders, even though it is not an additional cash payment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,663.7 | 949.6 | 619.3 | 909.6 | |
| − Capital spending | 530.4 | 685.7 | 762.6 | 426.1 | |
| − Lease payments | 32.6 | 23.3 | 20.5 | 13.7 | |
| − Interest paid | 90.3 | 101.4 | 68.6 | 45.6 | |
| = Free cash flow | 1,010.4 | 139.2 | -232.4 | 424.2 | |
| − Stock pay | 64.7 | 21.4 | 28.7 | 32.8 | 32.5 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is 145.5 million dollars higher because it leaves out cash costs that we count, including lease payments and interest.
What does an investor pay for Endeavour today?
The gap between trailing and forward P/E is the first major assumption. P/E means the share price divided by earnings; the forward measure implies that forecast earnings are roughly double the recent amount. Gold can lift earnings quickly, but depletion, depreciation and impairments can pull them down.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 4,218.0 |
| Market value (calculated) | 1,019,177.3 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 996,695.3 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 16.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 8.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 7.4% |