Darden stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Darden's weighted case reaches $217.82 in October 2027. It hinges on steady earnings growth and restaurant execution.
Where could Darden's shares be in October 2029?
At the October 2027 date, weighted value is $217.82, a 5% return including dividends. At October 2028, it is $232.73, a 15% return. At October 2029, it is $249.19, a 26% return. The last-date bear outcome is $151.65; the bull outcome is $372.36. Today’s price is $214.56.
The base case carries 57%, the highest weight. The bear and bull cases carry 25% and 18%, respectively.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 171.08 (-17 %) | 160.16 (-19 %) | 151.65 (-20 %) |
| Base | 57 % | 222.55 (+7 %) | 237.51 (+17 %) | 253.08 (+28 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 267.72 (+28 %) | 318.38 (+55 %) | 372.36 (+84 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 217.82 (+5 %) | 232.73 (+15 %) | 249.19 (+26 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average expected share value after giving more influence to the cases considered more likely.
What has to go right for Darden, and what could go wrong?
It gives $171.08 in the first forecast year and $151.65 in the last. Its 25% probability reflects Olive Garden’s 2.2% guest decline alongside a 3.4% check increase, plus the risk that food and labor costs erode margins. Dividends and buybacks already exceeded free cash flow, so weaker results could further reduce repurchases.
It gives $267.72 in the first forecast year and $372.36 in the last. Its 18% probability reflects LongHorn’s 6.8% aligned-calendar comparable-sales growth and the possibility that Olive Garden’s lunch initiatives restore visits. The outcome also requires stronger margins, $1 billion annual buybacks and a 24x exit multiple, which exceeds the supplied historical range.
How much cash does Darden really make?
Stock compensation is added back to operating cash because issuing shares is not an immediate cash payment. It still transfers value to employees, so subtracting fiscal 2026 stock pay of $79.1 million gives a more conservative analytical measure of free cash flow.
| May 2026 | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,853.1 | 1,707.0 | 1,621.7 | 1,552.8 | 1,264.6 |
| − Capital spending | 734.0 | 644.6 | 601.2 | 564.9 | 376.9 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,119.1 | 1,062.4 | 1,020.5 | 987.9 | 887.7 |
| − Stock pay | 79.1 | 79.1 | 68.5 | 67.5 | 60.5 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,040.0 | 983.3 | 952.0 | 920.4 | 827.2 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% |
What this means. Stock pay is subtracted even though it uses no cash because giving employees shares makes each existing share represent a smaller part of the company.
What does an investor pay for Darden today?
| Today (Oct 21, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 214.555 |
| Market value (calculated) | 24,275.4 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 20.8x |
| P/E on fiscal 2027 consensus (calculated) | 19.0x |
| Free cash flow yield, fiscal 2026 basis (calculated) | 4.6% |
| Real free cash flow yield, fiscal 2026 basis (calculated) | 4.3% |
What this means. The enterprise value is higher than the market value because it includes the company's debt and subtracts its cash, showing what it would cost to buy the whole business.