Digital Realty stock forecast
The probability-weighted price reaches $181.79 in October 2029, with the base case at 54%, the bear case at 28% and the bull case at 18%. It hinges on timely lease conversion and per-share growth.
Where could Digital Realty's shares be by 2029?
The forecast puts Digital Realty near today’s price after one year, then modestly higher. The probability-weighted price is $170.78 in October 2027, roughly flat including dividends. It rises to $177.76 in October 2028, a 7% total return. By October 2029, it reaches $181.79, a 12% total return.
The range is much wider than the weighted result suggests. In October 2029, the bear case gives $91.32, while the bull case gives $306.63. The bear, base and bull probabilities are 28%, 54% and 18%, respectively.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFFO (company's measure) | 3,000 (2,750 / 3,200) | 3,250 (2,820 / 3,600) | 3,520 (2,900 / 4,050) |
| Shares (millions) | 386 (396 / 381) | 400 (419 / 388) | 414 (445 / 396) |
| Dividends per share | 4.94 (4.88 / 4.96) | 5.00 (4.88 / 5.12) | 5.08 (4.88 / 5.28) |
| Price to AFFO (company's measure) | 23.00 (18.00 / 26.00) | 23.00 (16.00 / 28.00) | 22.00 (14.00 / 30.00) |
What has to go right for Digital Realty's forecast?
The evidence supports faster growth but also explains the restraint. Same-capital cash NOI grew 7.2%, cash renewal rents rose 25.4%, and 63% of the construction pipeline was pre-leased. However, the average signing-to-commencement lag was nine months, while development capex and dividends exceeded operating cash in the first half of 2026. The bear case therefore gives AFFO of $2,750 million, $2,820 million and $2,900 million; the bull gives $3,200 million, $3,600 million and $4,050 million. Management’s Core FFO guidance of $8.15–$8.20 per share and planned development capex of $4,250–$4,750 million provide an operating cross-check, not AFFO guidance.
How much cash does Digital Realty really make?
Stock compensation creates a second qualification. It is not a current cash payment, so Digital Realty adds it back in AFFO. But issuing shares to employees can dilute each shareholder’s future claim on earnings. AFFO should therefore be read beside diluted share growth.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFO (company's measure) | 2,268,164 | 2,015,471 | 1,782,308 | 1,753,831 | 1,813,096 |
| AFFO per share (company's measure) | 6.55 | 6.11 | 5.84 | 6.00 | 6.25 |
| Dividends paid | 1,656,646 | 1,560,315 | 1,448,261 | 1,377,284 | 1,299,244 |
| AFFO payout ratio | 74.5% | 79.9% | 83.5% | 81.4% | 74.2% |
What this means. The payout ratio may not match dividends paid because it uses dividends declared per share, not the cash actually paid during the year.
What does an investor pay for Digital Realty today?
It trades at 21.3x FFO and yields 2.8%. Its buyback yield is 0.0%. The tables show net operating income rising from 2021 to 2025, but same-store NOI growth varying sharply. FFO per share rose about 9% while diluted shares rose about 22%; AFFO supported a 74.5% payout ratio in 2025. Leverage improved from its 2022 high.
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 175.97 |
| Price to FFO (calculated) | 21.3x |
| Price to AFFO (calculated) | 23.5x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.8% |
What this means. The market value is not the value of every claim on the company because it leaves out operating-partnership units and preferred shares.