Carvana stock forecast
Carvana's probability-weighted forecast is $43.08 in October 2027, $46.57 in October 2028, and $50.19 in October 2029, including dividends. It hinges on Carvana turning growth into durable profit and cash while controlling debt, dilution, and operating costs.
Where could Carvana's shares be by 2029?
The forecast gives Carvana a probability-weighted price of $43.08 in October 2027, or a 27% loss including dividends. It gives $46.57 in October 2028, a 21% loss, and $50.19 in October 2029, a 15% loss. The starting price is $58.83.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 14.09 (-76%) | 14.74 (-75%) | 14.61 (-75%) |
| Base | 55% | 46.47 (-21%) | 44.43 (-24%) | 42.17 (-28%) |
| Bull | 20% | 69.98 (+19%) | 92.21 (+57%) | 116.74 (+98%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 43.08 (-27%) | 46.57 (-21%) | 50.19 (-15%) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the three cases, not a promise that the shares will reach that price.
What has to go right for Carvana, and what could go wrong?
The weighted forecast points below today’s price unless Carvana turns growth into durable profit and cash while controlling debt, dilution, and operating costs. Management’s July 29, 2026 guidance calls for $2,700–$3,000 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2026, an operating target rather than cash available to shareholders. Its longer-term ambition is 3 million retail units a year at a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2030–2035.
Normal operating profit is the main earnings path. The base case uses $2,400M in the first period, close to the implied 2026 operating-income range supported by the $2,700M–$3,000M adjusted EBITDA target. It rises to $2,500M and then $2,600M as volume and network utilization improve. The bear case gives $1,300M, $1,600M and $1,900M because loan-sale economics, vehicle margins and capacity utilization could weaken. The bull case gives $2,800M, $3,400M and $4,000M as retail GPU, volume and ADESA utilization remain strong. The long-term ambition is not assumed to arrive by 2029.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 2,400 (1,300 / 2,800) | 2,500 (1,600 / 3,400) | 2,600 (1,900 / 4,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,109 (1,122 / 1,104) | 1,118 (1,145 / 1,107) | 1,127 (1,168 / 1,110) |
| Dividends per share | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 22.00 (14.00 / 28.00) | 20.00 (12.00 / 30.00) | 18.00 (10.00 / 32.00) |
| Net debt | 1,254 (2,379 / 1,154) | 314 (2,329 / -91.00) | -726 (1,939 / -1,631) |
What this means. Carvana's net debt includes its financing platform, so it may look more indebted than the company's everyday business alone.
How much cash does Carvana really make?
Free cash flow starts with cash from operations and subtracts capital spending. This memo also presents “real free cash flow,” which subtracts stock pay. Stock pay does not require a cash cheque, but it compensates employees with shares and therefore dilutes existing owners.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,036 | 918 | 803 | -1,324 | -2,594 |
| − Capital spending | 147 | 91 | 87 | 512 | 557 |
| = Free cash flow | 889 | 827 | 716 | -1,836 | -3,151 |
| − Stock pay | 96 | 91 | 73 | 69 | 39 |
| = Real free cash flow | 793 | 736 | 643 | -1,905 | -3,190 |
What this means. These cash-flow figures include Carvana's financing business, so they do not show only the cash from selling cars.
What does an investor pay for Carvana today?
Reported profit is not the same as cash. A P/E ratio compares the share price with earnings per share, but earnings include accounting items that may not produce cash in the same period. In 2025, Carvana reported $1.895 billion of net income, including a $621 million non-cash benefit. Loan-sale gains can also lift earnings before the business receives all the economic benefit. Investors therefore need to compare the P/E with cash flow and the source of profit.