Cintas stock forecast
The weighted price reaches $220.12 in October 2029, after $209.88 in October 2027 and $211.43 in October 2028. It hinges on FTC clearance, financing, and UniFirst integration.
Where could Cintas's shares be by October 2029?
Cintas’s probability-weighted outcome is close to flat at first, then improves modestly. The weighted price is $209.88 in October 2027, against today’s $213.06. It reaches $211.43 in October 2028 and $220.12 in October 2029, producing returns of negative 1%, positive 1% and positive 7%, including dividends.
By October 2029, the forecast spans $148.21 in the bear case to $320.08 in the bull case. The width reflects unresolved FTC, financing and integration risks.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 170.03 (-19 %) | 156.54 (-25 %) | 148.21 (-27 %) |
| Base | 54 % | 214.45 (+2 %) | 216.27 (+4 %) | 224.09 (+8 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 258.17 (+22 %) | 282.27 (+35 %) | 320.08 (+54 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 209.88 (-1 %) | 211.43 (+1 %) | 220.12 (+7 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate prediction that is most likely to happen.
What has to go right or wrong for Cintas?
The base case assumes $14,000 million of revenue initially, then $15,000 million and $16,000 million, with margins recovering from 16.7857% to 17.625%. The bear case holds earnings near $2,250 million to $2,350 million as growth slows and synergies fail to appear. The bull case reaches $3,200 million as 8.9% organic growth, denser routes and plant efficiencies combine.
The bear case assumes delay, remedies or failure around UniFirst, weaker standalone growth and limited buybacks. Lower earnings and a fall toward 25x outweigh dividends, taking the shares from $170.03 in October 2027 to $148.21 in October 2029. Its probability is 28% because the acquisition combines regulatory, financing, dilution and execution risks, although Cintas’s core earnings record prevents this from becoming the central case.
How much cash does Cintas really make?
Net income was $1,999,968 thousand in fiscal 2026. Operating cash flow was $2,276,280 thousand. After $395,105 thousand of capital spending, free cash flow was $1,881,175 thousand. That is strong conversion, although free-cash-flow growth lagged earnings.
| May 2026 | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,276,280 | 2,165,905 | 2,068,500 | 1,586,228 | 1,537,625 |
| − Capital spending | 395,105 | 408,884 | 409,469 | 331,109 | 240,672 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,881,175 | 1,757,021 | 1,659,031 | 1,255,119 | 1,296,953 |
| − Stock pay | 128,076 | 128,329 | 116,986 | 103,621 | 109,308 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,753,099 | 1,628,692 | 1,542,045 | 1,151,498 | 1,187,645 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 15.6% | 15.8% | 16.1% | 13.1% | 15.1% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher by 11,586 thousand in May 2023 because it used an older way of presenting cash from operations, which was later reclassified.
What does an investor pay for Cintas today?
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 213.06 |
| Market value (calculated) | 84,600,819.315 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 86,786,065.315 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 42.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.1% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because the company has more debt than cash and short-term investments.