Constellation Software stock forecast
The Constellation Software weighted scenario is C$5,068.80 by October 2029, including dividends. The Constellation Software forecast hinges on turning acquisition scale into durable organic growth and cash returns.
Where could Constellation Software's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is C$3,488.86 by October 2027, an 11% return including dividends. By October 2029, it reaches C$5,068.80, a 62% return including dividends. The forecast assigns 30% probability to the bear case, 50% to the base case and 20% to the bull case.
The probability-weighted forecast is 3,488.86 in October 2027, 4,225.25 in October 2028 and 5,068.80 in October 2029, including dividends. Those figures imply returns of 11%, 35% and 62% from today’s 3,139.30. By October 2029, the range is wide: 2,256.63 in the bear case to 7,599.99 in the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 2444.17 (-22 %) | 2383.88 (-24 %) | 2256.63 (-28 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 3766.15 (+20 %) | 4690.67 (+50 %) | 5743.62 (+84 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 4362.70 (+39 %) | 5823.74 (+86 %) | 7599.99 (+143 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 3488.86 (+11 %) | 4225.25 (+35 %) | 5068.80 (+62 %) |
What has to go right for Constellation Software, and what could go wrong?
The bear case requires weak organic growth to persist, Altera to continue shrinking and larger acquisitions to earn less. Cash flow still grows, but investors pay less for each dollar of NAV. The price reaches 2,444.17 in October 2027 and 2,256.63 in October 2029. Its probability is 30% because first-half organic growth was only 1%, although recurring revenue and the stable share count limit the risk of a severe collapse.
The bull case requires Altera to stabilize, product improvements to broaden organic growth and recent cohorts to improve cash returns. The price reaches 4,362.70 in October 2027 and 7,599.99 in October 2029. Its probability is 20% because the outcome follows recent weakness rather than established evidence.
How much cash does Constellation Software really make?
FCFA2S is CSU’s measure of cash available to shareholders if it makes no acquisitions, investments or debt repayments. In 2025 it was $1.683 billion. The calculation deducts debt interest, lease payments, capital expenditure, the $440 million IRGA revaluation and the portion belonging to minority owners. It therefore measures financial capacity, not necessarily money available for dividends.
What does an investor pay today for Constellation Software?
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 3,139.30 |
| Market value (every class) (calculated) | 66,526.57 |
| Price to book (calculated) | 11.3x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 18.6x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.2% |
What this means. The expected profit measure uses analysts’ estimate for the next year, not a promise from the company, so it can change.