Coherent stock forecast
Coherent's probability-weighted scenario reaches $394.97 by October 2029. It hinges on converting InP capacity and customer orders into profitable shipments and cash.
Where could Coherent's shares be by October 2029?
The probability-weighted price is $288.58 in October 2027, a 24% return including dividends. It rises to $350.47 in October 2028, a 50% return. By October 2029, the weighted price reaches $394.97, a 70% return.
The October 2029 outcomes run from $169.67 to $779.82. Today's price is $232.90. The bear, base and bull probabilities are 25%, 60% and 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 165.20 (-29 %) | 166.37 (-29 %) | 169.67 (-27 %) |
| Base | 60 % | 304.15 (+31 %) | 361.99 (+55 %) | 392.64 (+69 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 431.94 (+85 %) | 611.25 (+162 %) | 779.82 (+235 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 288.58 (+24 %) | 350.47 (+50 %) | 394.97 (+70 %) |
What has to go right for Coherent?
The base case reaches $2,450M in October 2027 and $3,000M in October 2028. It reaches $3,500M in October 2029. The bear case uses $1,700M and $1,900M before reaching $2,150M. The bull case uses $2,700M and $3,550M before reaching $4,350M. The base assumes guidance is broadly delivered, InP qualifications progress and 800G and 1.6T demand improves utilization. Management guided September-quarter revenue to $2,200M–$2,400M. The bear reflects failed yields, customer timing and weak industrial demand; the bull requires strong yields, repeat programs and PhotonLink revenue beginning in calendar Q4 2026.
How much cash does Coherent really make?
Capital spending creates a second demand for cash, while stock compensation transfers value to employees without using current cash. Subtracting the table’s $186,468 thousand of stock pay gives analytical “real free cash flow” of −$1,209,863 thousand.
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 79,514 | 633,600 | 545,731 | 634,025 | 413,332 |
| − Capital spending | 1,102,909 | 440,836 | 346,816 | 436,060 | 314,332 |
| = Free cash flow | -1,023,395 | 192,764 | 198,915 | 197,965 | 99,000 |
| − Stock pay | 186,468 | 160,239 | 126,049 | 148,872 | 73,214 |
| = Real free cash flow | -1,209,863 | 32,525 | 72,866 | 49,093 | 25,786 |
What this means. The cash tied up in working capital is already included in cash from operations, so do not subtract it again.
What does an investor pay for Coherent today?
P/E means the share price divided by earnings per share. Coherent’s trailing P/E is 56.7x, while its forward P/E is 24.7x for the next twelve months. That gap assumes a large improvement, but the comparison depends on which earnings count. Fiscal 2026 GAAP EPS was $4.12, against adjusted EPS of $5.61. GAAP includes acquired-intangible amortization and other charges; adjusted earnings remove some of them. The charge may not use cash today, but the acquisition that created it did cost money.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 232.90 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 56.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 24.7x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -2.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -2.6% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.0% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings ratio is lower because it uses expected future profit, not profit already earned.