CN stock forecast
CN’s weighted forecast is C$188.85 by October 2029 (+19%, dividends included). It hinges on pricing, productivity and traffic growth converting into cash while service remains reliable.
Where could CN’s shares go?
For 2026, management expects low-single-digit RTM growth and mid-to-high-single-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth, with a C$2,800 million capital program net of customer reimbursements. The outlook assigns 25% probability to the bear case, 55% to the base case and 20% to the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 126.91 (-22 %) | 112.64 (-29 %) | 108.23 (-29 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 172.24 (+5 %) | 182.13 (+13 %) | 192.26 (+21 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 202.22 (+23 %) | 238.69 (+47 %) | 280.26 (+74 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 166.90 (+2 %) | 176.07 (+9 %) | 188.85 (+19 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for CN?
The bear case begins with weak harvests or trade disruption arriving alongside labor negotiations. Traffic falls, service recovery costs rise and customers delay projects. Slower industrial demand then limits productivity, while debt and renewal spending reduce buybacks. The multiple falls as investors lose confidence in execution. This produces C$126.91 in 2027 and C$108.23 in 2029, with a 25% probability. The probability reflects real cyclical and labor risks, but the recent grain record and positive trailing growth make a prolonged decline less likely.
The bull case requires strong grain and customer-facility traffic, reliable service and successful project execution. Approved access and new capacity must then create repeat profitable routes, while productivity expands margins and cash conversion stabilizes debt. The multiple rises with confidence, producing C$202.22 in 2027 and C$280.26 in 2029. Its probability is 20% because approvals, ramp-ups, service reliability and cash generation must all succeed together.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 9,200 (8,650 / 9,450) | 9,550 (8,700 / 10,050) | 9,900 (8,900 / 10,700) |
| Dividends per share | 3.70 (3.66 / 3.75) | 3.85 (3.66 / 4.05) | 4.00 (3.66 / 4.40) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 13.50 (11.50 / 15.00) | 13.50 (10.50 / 16.00) | 13.50 (10.00 / 17.00) |
| Net debt | 21,424 (23,100 / 21,775) | 21,524 (23,800 / 21,575) | 21,524 (24,300 / 20,975) |
How much cash does CN really make?
Capital spending reached C$3,658 million. After that spending and lease payments, much less remained for dividends, debt repayment or acquisitions. CN’s “real free cash flow” also subtracts stock-based compensation, because issuing shares to employees dilutes existing owners or requires cash to offset the dilution.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 7,049 | 6,699 | 6,965 | 6,667 | 6,971 |
| − Capital spending | 3,658 | 3,549 | 3,187 | 2,750 | 2,891 |
| − Lease payments | 2 | 31 | 2 | 7 | 68 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,389 | 3,119 | 3,776 | 3,910 | 4,012 |
| − Stock pay | 106 | 74 | 64 | 63 | 81 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,283 | 3,045 | 3,712 | 3,847 | 3,931 |
What does an investor pay for CN?
Cash is the harder test. CN plans C$2.8 billion of capital spending in 2026, and calling spending growth rather than maintenance does not change the cash required to keep the network sound. The free-cash-flow yield is modest, so the valuation depends on future growth rather than today’s cash alone.