Celestica stock forecast
The weighted forecast reaches C$819.03 in October 2029 with the base case at 55% probability. It hinges on qualified 1.6T programs, reliable factory execution, stable yields and inventory converting to cash.
Where could Celestica's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast reaches C$651.55 in October 2027. That is a +49% return. It reaches C$819.03 in October 2029. That is a +88% return. The bear case has 25% probability. The base and bull cases have 55% and 20% probabilities. The October 2029 bear case is C$380.52. The bull case is C$1,439.31.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 418.04 (-4 %) | 346.65 (-21 %) | 380.52 (-13 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 664.78 (+52 %) | 728.80 (+67 %) | 792.80 (+82 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 907.06 (+108 %) | 1192.11 (+173 %) | 1439.31 (+230 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 651.55 (+49 %) | 725.92 (+66 %) | 819.03 (+88 %) |
What has to go right for Celestica, and what could go wrong?
The outcome depends on qualified 1.6T programs, reliable factory execution, stable yields and inventory converting to cash. September-quarter results arrive on October 26, 2026, followed by the investor-day call on October 27. Helios samples are expected toward year-end 2026, with a substantial ramp expected in the first half of 2027; samples and availability do not establish volume sales.
How much cash does Celestica really make?
That was far below net income of US$832.5 million because accounting profit is not the same as spendable cash. Working capital absorbed cash, while capital equipment required payment immediately even though its accounting cost is spread over future years. Deducting US$69.8 million of stock compensation gives an analytical “real free cash flow” figure of US$377.0 million.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 659.5 | 473.9 | 326.2 | 211.1 | 226.8 |
| − Capital spending | 201.2 | 170.9 | 125.1 | 109.0 | 52.2 |
| = Free cash flow | 446.8 | 293.3 | 191.2 | 93.7 | 112.2 |
| − Stock pay | 69.8 | 57.4 | 55.6 | 51.0 | 33.4 |
| = Real free cash flow | 377.0 | 235.9 | 135.6 | 42.7 | 78.8 |
What does an investor pay for Celestica today?
The trailing P/E is 31.9x, meaning investors pay C$31.90 for each dollar of recent earnings. The forward P/E is 15.9x because it uses expected adjusted earnings rather than past earnings. Adjusted earnings exclude selected items such as stock compensation and intangible-asset amortization, so the apparent bargain depends on the forecast arriving.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 436.24 |
| Market value (calculated) | 55,014.7 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 55,405.0 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 31.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 15.9x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.2% |
What this means. The enterprise value does not yet include the cash raised in the August share offering because it uses the June 30 balance sheet.