Amphenol stock forecast
Amphenol's probability-weighted price is $115.42 in October 2029. Amphenol's outcome hinges on organic demand, CCS execution, and margins.
Where could Amphenol's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast's central message is positive expected return with a wide range of outcomes. The probability-weighted price is $101.56 in October 2027, equal to an 18% return with dividends. It is $107.20 in October 2028, or 26%. By October 2029 it is $115.42, or 36%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 56.46 (-34 %) | 48.64 (-42 %) | 48.01 (-43 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 103.69 (+21 %) | 107.65 (+26 %) | 114.40 (+35 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 152.09 (+77 %) | 179.17 (+109 %) | 202.47 (+138 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 101.56 (+18 %) | 107.20 (+26 %) | 115.42 (+36 %) |
What has to go right—or wrong—for Amphenol?
The bear case requires an AI and data-center pause, weaker order conversion, underused capacity, and persistent CCS debt costs. It leads to $56.46 in October 2027 and $48.01 in October 2029. Its 25% probability reflects 43% datacom exposure, weaker communications-network demand, and $13.4 billion of net debt, but the order book makes it less likely than the base case.
The bull case requires AI investment to remain strong, more high-speed, fiber, and power content per system, and CCS to improve customers, costs, and margins. It leads to $152.09 in October 2027 and $202.47 in October 2029. Its 20% probability reflects credible operating upside, but also the need for sustained growth, faster debt reduction, and a 40x ending multiple.
How much cash does Amphenol really make?
Free cash flow is operating cash flow after ordinary capital spending. Amphenol spent $996.6 million on property and equipment in 2025 and reported its own free-cash-flow measure of $4,392.9 million because it included proceeds from asset disposals. Deducting stock compensation as an allowance for dilution produces “real” free cash flow of $4,242.7 million. These measures exclude acquisition payments because buying another company is a separate investment decision.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,374.7 | 2,814.7 | 2,528.7 | 2,174.6 | 1,523.9 |
| − Capital spending | 996.6 | 665.4 | 372.8 | 383.8 | 360.4 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,378.1 | 2,149.3 | 2,155.9 | 1,790.8 | 1,163.5 |
| − Stock pay | 135.4 | 109.5 | 99.0 | 89.5 | 83.0 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,242.7 | 2,039.8 | 2,056.9 | 1,701.3 | 1,080.5 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 18.4% | 13.4% | 16.4% | 13.5% | 9.9% |
What does an investor pay for Amphenol today?
Amphenol supplies connections that carry power, signals and data. At $86.19 on October 13, 2026, shareholders valued the company at $212,541.7 million. Enterprise value was $225,933.9 million because it adds debt and subtracts cash. That difference represents the claims financing the enlarged business.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 86.19 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 42.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 26.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.1% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.0% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.6% |