Nongfu Spring dividend
Nongfu Spring's dividend per share rose every year from 2021 to 2025, and the base forecast raises it from CNY1.10 to CNY1.30. In 2025, dividends used 60.5% of free cash flow, after 188.6% in 2024.
How much does Nongfu Spring pay per share?
Base dividends rise from CNY1.10 to CNY1.30 per share. The bear case cuts first and recovers slowly; the bull case reaches CNY1.65 because earnings and cash generation are stronger. DPS rose every year from 2021 to 2025, and net cash was CNY27,005.353m at June 2026. But there is no preset payout ratio, while capital commitments were about CNY3,970m.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 19,407 (16,683 / 20,851) | 21,076 (16,761 / 23,599) | 22,585 (17,008 / 26,082) |
| Shares (millions) | 11,246 (11,246 / 11,246) | 11,246 (11,246 / 11,246) | 11,246 (11,246 / 11,246) |
| Dividends per share | 1.10 (0.85 / 1.20) | 1.20 (0.90 / 1.42) | 1.30 (0.95 / 1.65) |
| Price to earnings | 21.00 (16.00 / 25.00) | 20.00 (14.00 / 26.00) | 19.00 (13.00 / 27.00) |
Does Nongfu Spring's dividend come from its cash?
Dividends were the main distribution. In 2024, Nongfu generated RMB4,472.336 million of free cash flow but paid RMB8,434.85 million in dividends. That payout equalled 188.6% of free cash flow, so accumulated cash, investments and borrowing helped cover the difference. Net cash fell from RMB21,004.591 million at the end of 2023 to RMB8,626.053 million at the end of 2024. In 2025, dividend coverage recovered to 60.5% of free cash flow. One shortfall can use the existing cushion; repeated ones would compete directly with factory investment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 14,501.532 | 4,472.336 | 12,482.067 | 7,764.766 | 8,855.05 |
| − Dividends paid | 8,547.314 | 8,434.85 | 7,646.313 | 5,059.118 | 1,911.899 |
| − Share buybacks | 221.552 | 0 | 0 | 225.401 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 5,732.666 | 4,835.754 | 2,480.247 | 6,943.151 | |
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 3,962.514 | ||||
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 60.5% | 188.6% | 61.3% | 68.1% | 21.6% |
What this means. In 2024, the company paid shareholders more cash than it generated from the business, so it used savings or new borrowing to cover the difference.
What could change Nongfu Spring's dividend?
By 2028–2029, packaging and freight costs, factory utilization, free cash flow and dividend decisions will determine whether margins and cash conversion justify the assumed multiple. A firmer multiple would require evidence that growth is repeatable, not merely the result of initial channel stocking.
What is Nongfu Spring's dividend yield today?
The dividend yield is below the free cash flow yield, but the board has no preset payout ratio. Only a minority of shares forms the public float, so marginal buying or selling can move the quoted price more sharply.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 41.12 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.7% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.7% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.8% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings ratio uses analysts' forecast profit, so it can be wrong if the company earns more or less than expected.