Research memoChina Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. (3968.HK) · HKSEMemo of October 12, 2026

CMB earnings: guidance and what to watch

CMB’s next results are expected on October 31, 2026. Watch whether loan growth earns enough to offset margin pressure and credit costs.

October 31, 2026
Next results
88,557
Revenue, quarter to Jun 2026 (RMB millions; per share in RMB)
1.49
EPS, diluted, quarter to Jun 2026
Read the full CMB memoYour first report is free · no card
Every number traced to CMB's filings8 chapters · 16,593 words135 sources cited

What has CMB guided for 2026?

On 27 March 2026, CMB targeted growth of approximately 6% to 7% in total customer deposits and total loans and advances during 2026. Deposits are money customers place with the bank; loans are money the bank lends. Growing both can enlarge the business, but it creates value only when the income from loans covers deposit costs, operating expenses, expected losses and the capital tied up in lending.

Revenue by quarter (RMB millions; per share in RMB)79,136Sep 202483,981Dec 202482,892Mar 202585,359Jun 202578,418Sep 202585,131Dec 202586,205Mar 202688,557Jun 2026Revenue
Targets and guidance in force
Period coveredTarget in the bank's wordsDate given
total deposits from customers2026increase … by approximately 6% to 7%Mar 27, 2026
total loans and advances to customers2026increase … by approximately 6% to 7%Mar 27, 2026

Has CMB kept its dividend promises?

CMB’s stated dividend policy generally sets a minimum cash distribution of 30% of attributable profit. The bank said its payout remained above 35% since 2024 and that it introduced an interim dividend in 2025. That supports shareholder cash returns, but the unchanged 0.94% non-performing-loan ratio did not prevent problem-loan balances from increasing.

What do CMB’s last eight quarters show?

The first half tells the same story. Revenue rose 3.9%, while profit rose 2.0%. Credit charges increased 18.5%. NIM was 1.8% in both 2026 quarters, compared with 1.9% in the corresponding 2025 quarters. More earning assets and cheaper funding supported income, but pricing had not clearly recovered.

The last eight quartersRMB millions; per share in RMB
Jun 2026Mar 2026Dec 2025Sep 2025Jun 2025Mar 2025Dec 2024Sep 2024
Revenue88,55786,20585,13178,41885,35982,89283,98179,136
Net interest income56,38055,64255,55153,95753,08952,99653,97952,849
Profit after tax38,87138,04836,58939,13237,89237,51335,52038,660
EPS, diluted1.491.491.271.541.411.481.251.52
Net interest margin1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.9%1.9%1.9%2.0%

What should CMB watchers look for next?

The next earnings announcement is expected on 27 October 2026. Investors should look together at loan balances, lending margins, impairment charges and capital. A larger loan book with weaker returns would tell a very different story from growth that replenishes capital.

Interest margin and costs
20252024202320222021
Net interest margin1.9%2.0%2.1%2.4%2.5%
Cost: income ratio32.0%31.9%33.0%32.9%33.1%
Return on equity13.4%14.5%16.2%17.1%17.0%
From the full memo · 1. The business

A bank sells access to money: it keeps deposits, makes loans, moves payments, and manages investments. China Merchants Bank Co. Ltd. earns when those services produce interest and fees, but bears the risks of funding, defaults, and withdrawals.

Continue reading, free
Your first report is free · no card

Where these numbers come from

More on CMB

CMB stock forecastCMB dividend

Browse

All stocksHang Seng companiesCompanies C
The full CMB memoYour first report is free
Read it