Hongqiao dividend
Hongqiao's forecast dividend per share ranges from CNY0.50 to CNY2.90, with a base path of CNY2.10, CNY1.90 and CNY1.80. Hongqiao's cash coverage is cyclical: free cash flow turned negative in 2022, and future funding needs could constrain dividends or buybacks.
What dividend does Hongqiao pay over time?
Dividends follow earnings but normalize as investment continues. The base case selects CNY2.10, CNY1.90 and CNY1.80 per share, supported initially by the CNY3.49983 analyst EPS estimate but reduced after H1 2026 produced no interim dividend. The bear case cuts DPS from CNY1.40 to CNY0.70 and CNY0.50 as cash tightens; the bull case rises from CNY2.30 to CNY2.60 and CNY2.90. The range reflects dividends falling sharply during the last downturn and negative free cash flow in 2022.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 2.38 | 2.36 | 1.20 | 0.94 | 1.71 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 0.91 | 0.81 | 0.39 | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.89 | 1.16 |
What this means. In 2022, the company paid out 1.49 RMB per share more than its free cash flow, so it had to use other cash or borrow.
Is Hongqiao's dividend covered by its cash?
Free cash flow is the operating cash left after investment spending. It can fund dividends and buybacks, but those payments do not create operating cash. Hongqiao’s five-year record shows strong cash generation in some years and negative free cash flow in another, so a large payout in a strong year may not be sustainable.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 24,444.48 | 17,453.483 | 13,070.659 | -4,803.181 | 18,449.27 |
| − Dividends paid | 8,666.133 | 7,658.537 | 3,786.112 | 8,225.651 | 7,184.483 |
| − Share buybacks | 5,130.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 8,212.667 | 8,105.166 | 8,702.081 | 11,161.509 | |
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 13,826.589 | ||||
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 56.4% | 43.9% | 29.0% | not meaningful | 38.9% |
What this means. In 2022, the company paid shareholders more than the cash it generated, so it had to use savings or new borrowing.
What could change Hongqiao's dividend?
Funding evidence matters through 2027–29. Heavy capex, guarantee obligations or demands around the 2027 convertible would reduce free cash flow and constrain dividends or buybacks.
What is Hongqiao's dividend yield against its share price?
The five-year record shows revenue and earnings recovering after a cash-flow downturn. The company’s free cash flow, computed from its cash-flow statement as cash from operations minus capital spending, lease payments and interest paid, turned negative in 2022; diluted EPS recovered, but cash per share remains the sharper test after investment. Buybacks returned cash at a 3.1% yield alongside an 8.4% dividend yield.
The weighted forecast offers modest positive total returns, but not a convincing share-price rerating. The weighted share-price outcome is HKD17.81 by October 2027, HKD16.09 by October 2028 and HKD15.20 by October 2029, against HKD19.64 today.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 19.64 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 14.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 14.9% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 8.4% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it adds the company's debt and subtracts its cash, showing the cost of buying the whole business.