Henderson dividend
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Henderson paid HK$1.76 in dividends per share in 2025, against free cash flow per share of HK$0.58. Henderson's free cash flow was HK$2,849 million, so cash did not cover the dividend.
How much does Henderson pay per share over the years shown?
Revenue reached HK$25,741 million in 2025, up 1.9%. Operating margin fell from 51.2% in 2021 to 22.3% in 2025. Real free cash flow, calculated in this memo, was HK$2,849 million in 2025 after HK$5,158 million in 2024. The 2025 result included HK$7,762 million released from working capital. Free cash flow per share was HK$0.58 against HK$1.76 paid in dividends per share.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 1.14 | 1.30 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 2.73 |
| Real free cash flow per share | 0.58 | 1.07 | 0.58 | 0.84 | -11.66 |
| Free cash flow per share | 0.58 | 1.07 | 0.58 | 0.84 | -11.66 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 1.76 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| = Paid out more than FCF, per share | 1.28 | 0.78 | 1.26 | 1.00 | 13.51 |
What this means. “Paid out more than free cash flow” is a shortfall, so the positive number means the company paid that much more than it generated in free cash.
Does Henderson's cash cover its dividend?
Henderson’s cash problem is simple: property spending arrives in lumps, while dividends create a continuing claim on cash. In 2021, the cash bridge turned sharply negative alongside the Central Harbourfront commitment. In 2025, dividends still exceeded free cash flow, so Henderson needed existing cash, borrowing or asset sales to keep distributions flowing.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 2,849 | 5,158 | 2,831 | 4,089 | -56,428 |
| − Dividends paid | 8,715 | 8,715 | 8,715 | 8,715 | 8,715 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 6,338 | 3,796 | 6,100 | 4,842 | 65,382 |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 305.9% | 169.0% | 307.8% | 213.1% | not meaningful |
What this means. The company's own net debt is lower because it leaves out loans from a fellow subsidiary, while our count includes them.
What could change Henderson's dividend?
The dividend decision shows the competing pressure. On March 23, 2026, the board reduced the fiscal 2025 annual dividend. The cut was 30%, and management cited uncertainty from the Middle East war. Retaining more cash may strengthen Henderson’s ability to finish Central projects, but shareholders now receive less while waiting for those projects to mature.
Dividends start at HK$1.26 per share in the base case and reach HK$1.35. The bear path falls from HK$1.00 to HK$0.60, while the bull path rises from HK$1.30 to HK$1.50. The base holds the 2025 annual payout because the interim dividend remained HK$0.50, but rapid growth is unlikely after dividends exceeded free cash flow of HK$2,849m.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 7,600 (6,400 / 8,500) | 7,800 (6,100 / 9,300) | 8,000 (6,300 / 10,100) |
| Dividends per share | 1.26 (1.00 / 1.30) | 1.30 (0.80 / 1.40) | 1.35 (0.60 / 1.50) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 36.00 (32.00 / 39.00) | 35.00 (30.00 / 42.00) | 34.00 (28.00 / 45.00) |
| Net debt | 142,526 (179,526 / 131,526) | 147,526 (194,526 / 124,526) | 151,526 (206,526 / 116,526) |
What is Henderson's dividend yield against its price?
The 52-week range runs from HK$24.58 to HK$35.66. At HK$27.40, the share is about 23% below its high. It rose 4.0% in one month but fell 10.8% over six months, so the recent recovery has not repaired the earlier decline.