CLP stock forecast
CLP's weighted price is HK$81.48 in October 2027, with a 55% base case, a 25% bear case and a 20% bull case. CLP's outcome hinges on project delivery, Australian recovery and cash conversion.
Where could CLP's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is HK$81.48. It implies a 10% total return in October 2027. At the last forecast date, it reaches HK$88.09. That implies a 27% total return in October 2029. The bear case probability is 25%. The base case is 55%. The bull case is 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 68.40 (-7 %) | 61.75 (-12 %) | 55.41 (-16 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 81.93 (+10 %) | 85.50 (+19 %) | 89.06 (+28 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 96.58 (+29 %) | 110.55 (+52 %) | 126.26 (+77 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 81.48 (+10 %) | 84.57 (+18 %) | 88.09 (+27 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average expected share value after giving more influence to the base case because it is more likely.
What has to go right or wrong for CLP?
The base case rises to HK$11,500 million in 2027. It then reaches HK$12,000 million and HK$12,500 million, as Hong Kong regulated assets and demand grow while Australian competition and investment costs remain a drag. The bear case falls to HK$10,800 million, then HK$10,400 million and HK$10,000 million, reflecting weaker Australia, funding pressure and the Yallourn replacement gap. The bull case reaches HK$12,200 million, then HK$13,300 million and HK$14,500 million, requiring stronger Hong Kong demand, stable Australian retail and successful storage projects. Data-centre sales already rose 7.5% in 2025, while EnergyAustralia’s operating contribution fell from HK$591 million to HK$85 million.
How much cash does CLP really make?
A conservative free-cash-flow measure starts with cash from operations and subtracts capital spending, lease payments and interest. It asks what remains after running the business, funding its assets and paying finance costs. Construction cycles are lumpy, so a negative year may reflect heavy investment rather than weak operations; a positive year may still be insufficient to replace ageing equipment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 24,378 | 23,140 | 23,567 | 12,734 | 17,806 |
| − Capital spending | 15,539 | 15,076 | 11,776 | 14,553 | 12,431 |
| − Lease payments | 233 | 346 | 321 | 261 | 271 |
| − Interest paid | 1,877 | 2,329 | 2,198 | 2,263 | 1,873 |
| = Free cash flow | 6,729 | 5,389 | 9,272 | -4,343 | 3,231 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 22,551 | 20,941 | 21,866 | 11,080 | 16,793 |
What does an investor pay for CLP today?
Valuation multiples describe the price from different angles. P/E compares the share price with earnings, EV/revenue compares the whole business with its sales, and price-to-book compares the market value with recorded shareholders’ equity. None proves that CLP is cheap or expensive alone.
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 77.15 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 18.0x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 17.1x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.5% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.1% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it adds the company's debt and subtracts its cash to show what buying the whole business would cost.